Study on Impacts and Costs of Forced Displacement State of the Art Literature Review

Abstract

COVID-nineteen pandemic has brought hard situations for citizens of nations across the world. The bear upon yet , may be more than astringent for others in the Third Earth Countries, who are in desperate situations and whose conditions may well farther deteriorate if non put into considerations. While this pandemic affects different dimensions of life and gild in general, this paper examines the impact of the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic on Somaliland Eco nomy and analyze s the need for mitigation measures of this pandemic. The research methodology of this paper reviews secondary information which were collected through various magazines, articles, newspapers and published journals. The study focuses on d escriptive research design and the sample design selected for this study which was illustrative . This study observed that COVID-19 is affecting the Somaliland economy through loss of jobs and other incomes, gradual recession and deterioration of public financial and individual business sectors of the nation. The report discovers that for the recovery of the economy, certain mitigation measures and policy interventions must be administered , which includes health and social protection, fiscal policy and financial, industrial and merchandise policies. Therefore, the expected outcomes from assistants of the policy instruments would be reduction in human suffering and the enhancement of the recovery of the economy from defalcation and recession.

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Mohamed, A. (2021) A Literature Review: The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Somaliland Economy. Open up Journal of Social Sciences, 9, 54-64. doi: ten.4236/jss.2021.92004.

one. Introduction

An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus two, was reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, Communist china in Dec 2019, in the following weeks, infections spread across China and other countries around the world, resulting in a pandemic (Zu et al., 2020). COVID-nineteen is a large group of viruses that creates illness. Information technology ranges from the mutual cold to more severe diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Shubhi & Archna, 2020). The affliction, currently there is no pharmaceutical treatment (Hevia & Neumeyer, 2020). COVID-19 is having major consequences on the world economic system, and experts have predicted that the virus will lower global gdp growth by one-half a percentage signal for 2020 from ii.ix% to ii.4% (Gupta et al., 2020).

The economic consequences of the pandemic have not fallen with equal severity on all shoulders. Existing vulnerabilities have not been exposed, and inequalities entrenched (ILO & OECD, 2020). Humanity volition never forget December 2019 when the foreign virus emerged. Since so, it threatens to become one of the most difficult tests faced by humanity in modern history with huge potentiality to take lives, overwhelm wellness systems and trigger lasting socio-economical change (Anthony, 2020). The International monetary fund Written report in 2020 observes that in the confront of COVID-xix pandemic, the global economic system faces its worst downturn since the corking low. Following Oxfam International in her 2020 report warned that half a billion people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the COVID-xix Pandemic (Anthony, 2020).

Somaliland reported its outset two cases of COVID-19 on 31st March, 2020, currently in Dec, 2020, in that location are 1311 cases, 1249 individuals recovered and a full number of 43 deaths (Somaliland COVID-xix, 2020). Prior to the confirmation of these cases, the authorities had already established COVID-nineteen chore force, which has introduced travel restrictions and social distancing measures (Rius & Diallo, 2020). Somaliland is a Sub-Saharan land located in the Horn of Africa, sharing boundaries with the Gulf of Aden in the North, Somalia in the east, the Federal Republic of Ethiopia in the southwest, and Republic of djibouti in the Northwest. Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991; although internationally unrecognized, Somaliland has been self-governing always since that declaration (Herring et al., 2020).

In Somaliland, imports duties contribute around 80% of the total revenue for the government while only 20% come from Inland Revenue (Bank of Somaliland, 2020). Somaliland's economical production and merchandise are dominated past livestock production. Equally of the poorest nations in the globe, its poverty rates are higher and man development indicators are lower than other least developed countries in the region (Ministry of Planning & National Development, 2017). The economy of Somaliland is an open up and it trades with the rest of the world (Imf, 2020). The major sources of economic growth for Somaliland are Remittances funds from the Diaspora in Western Europe, North America and the Gulf countries (Bank of Somaliland, 2020).

Around 40% of households in rural and urban areas do not have any economically agile individuals aged xv to 54, these households are likewise more like to receive remittances (MoNPD, 2017). However, the increasing spread of the COVID-19 across countries has prompted many governments including Somaliland to introduce unpresented measures to comprise the pandemic. These measures have led to many businesses existence shut down temporarily, widespread restrictions on travel and mobility, financial market place turmoil such as disruption of remittance channels (Banking concern of Somaliland, 2020).

The construction of this study was organized equally follows. Section ii is virtually the problem statement, section three and four are the objectives and methodology and procedure of the paper, section 5 consists of review of related literature to the pandemic, section half-dozen and seven gives concluding remarks and policy recommendations for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic.

one.1. Trouble Argument

COVID-19 is spreading human suffering worldwide; that is what we should all be focused on. But we are not doctors, we are economists and COVID-19 is most definitely spreading economic suffering worldwide (Baldwin et al., 2020). Still, the government of Somaliland has implemented a fractional lockdown and this largely afflicted public offices including Schools and Universities likewise equally part based businesses. The COVID-nineteen besides affected Somaliland's major economic sectors including aviation, hospitality and domestic transport (Musa, 2020).

After the outbreak of COVID-19, a pregnant reduction of the remittance arrival to the nation is expected to decline due to the global lockdowns that may bring the loss of jobs for the diaspora community and the closure of financial institutions such as banks and coin transfer operators (Bank of Somaliland, 2020). Social distancing, self-isolation and travel restrictions forced Somaliland a decrease in the workforce beyond all economic sectors and acquired many jobs to be lost. Schools have airtight downwards, and the need of manufactured products has decreased. The food supply has too seen a great demand (Duale, 2020).

one.2. Objectives of Inquiry

· To examine the impact of pandemic COVID-xix on Somaliland economy.

· To analyze the need for mitigation measures of this pandemic COVID-19.

2. Enquiry Methods

This part of the inquiry furnishes the research methodology was used in this study. This study considers December 2020 to January 2021 as its study menstruation. The review of the research was used secondary data. The information was collected through various magazines, manufactures, published access journals, newspapers and public and government portals (websites) for the study. This study focuses on descriptive research design. The sample design chooses for this study was illustrative.

3. Literature Review

3.1. Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses

In Somaliland, the COVID-19 outbreak has forced many businesses and stores to close, leading to an unpresented disruption of commerce in almost industry sectors. Retailers and brands face many short-term challenges, such as those related to health and condom, the supply concatenation, the workforce, cash catamenia, consumer need, sales and marketing (Donthu & Gustafsson, 2020). Private electricity Companies increased the cost of bills due to dependent on fuel imports from strange countries. Therefore, price changes in all services have importance consequences for all Somaliland's business sectors (Rius & Diallo, 2020).

In addition to its bear on on public wellness, coronavirus disease 2019 has caused a major economical daze. The pandemic had already caused massive dislocation amid pocket-sized businesses just several weeks afterwards its onset, approximately 25% of businesses had temporarily closed and nearly all of these closures were due to COVID-19 (Bartik et al., 2020). Business owners take been shocked with challenges of their businesses to include irregular running of businesses, work methods and possible financial constraint on Companies with uncertain of the future (Stephen, 2020).

The COVID-xix is likely to cause defalcation for many well-known brands in many industries as consumers stay at domicile and economies and shut down (McKee & Tucker, 2020). This is not but having consequences for the economy; all of society is affected, which has led to dramatic changes in how businesses act and consumers conduct (Donthu & Gustafsson, 2020). Near major industries faced big drops in the number of business owners with the only exception being agronomics. Construction, restaurants, hotels & transportation all faced large declines in the number of business organisation owners due to COVID-xix (Fairlie, 2020).

iii.two. Impact of COVID-nineteen on International Merchandise & Export

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the world into recession. For 2020 it was the worse than the global economic crisis. The economic damage is mounting beyond all countries, tracking the abrupt rise in new infections and containment measures in place (International monetary fund, 2020). As result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by three% in 2020 much worse than during 2008-09 financial crunch (Banking concern of Somaliland, 2020). The tourism sector alone faces an output decrease as high equally 70% (OECD, 2020).

COVID-19 has a growing bear on on the economy of Somaliland, though the current impact is more on brusk-term, the medium and long-term of the impact is still unknown. These brusque term economic impacts can translate into reductions in long-term growth and difficult to recover (Bank of Somaliland, 2020). Somaliland imports are decreased due to COVID-xix and this has fiscal and unemployment adverse implications, because import duties contribute around lxxx% of the total revenue for the government while only 20% comes from Inland Revenue (Depository financial institution of Somaliland, 2020).

The Somaliland'southward export to other countries which is mainly livestock and its byproducts are expected to decline significantly due to disruptions of world supply chains and quarantine measures spread across the global. Total export value of 2019 was $212 million, which is less than the total import value of the same year a deficit of $361 one thousand thousand (Imf, 2020). Using the current IMF prediction, the volume of export of emerging and developing countries is predicted to decline -9.6% which implies that the total export value of Somaliland will decline to 191.4 million, when the base of operations year is 2019 total export value (Bank of Somaliland, 2020).

iii.3. Impact of COVID-xix on Remittance Flows

Over the years, the Somali culture of trust has created a well-functioning money transfer business which has allowed Somali-lander's in Diaspora to send money back dwelling house. In the erstwhile days migrants from Somaliland used to remit coin to their relatives either via international banking concern transfers (Banking company of Somaliland, 2020). The volume of remittances received in Somaliland in 2018 was $ane.four billion which is equivalent to 51% of GDP. This makes one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the Earth (Ministry building of Planning & National Development, 2017).

Almanac remittances are estimated at $ane billion approximately 38% of Somaliland's GDP. The indirect touch of COVID-19 on Somaliland equally a consequence of the virus' effects on importing countries and countries of residence to the Somali diaspora is yet unknown (Rius & Diallo, 2020). Around 40% of households in rural and urban areas do not have any economically agile individuals aged xv to 54. These households are besides more likely to receive remittances (MoNPD, 2017). Households without any economically active adults are around three times as likely to receive remittances in both urban and rural areas as shown below in Figure one.

Figure ane. Households with & without employed adults receiving remittances.

A autumn in remittance levels is already being noticed and is of business organization to local people in Hargeisa-Somaliland due to COVID-nineteen (Musa, 2020). There are dissimilar reasons for this including the reluctance of senders to physically visit shops and outlets, which is a common means of transferring money as well as the difficulty coin transfer operators face in gathering physical greenbacks from agents in diaspora settings and moving that greenbacks to their headquarters in Dubai, due to flight restrictions (Musa, 2020). Remittances are falling every bit a outcome of the pandemic. Countries, where remittances are sent, are on lock downwardly or under restrictions. Other factors affecting this may include migrants having insufficient funds equally a effect of employment loss; unavailability of services to cash in or greenbacks in the money remittances cash based firms (Bank of Somaliland, 2020).

3.iv. Impact of COVID-19 on Employment

According to International Labor Organizations, 2020, the crisis has already transformed into an economic and labor market daze, impacting not just supply but demand consumption and investment (ILO & OECD, 2020). However, the government of Somaliland has imposed partial restrictions and lock downs on vast majority of businesses and economic activities in the nation, pushing thousands of people to lost their jobs and increase the unemployment charge per unit for instance the social distancing and movement restriction measures brought to close both public and individual schools, sports and entertainment centers (Bank of Somaliland, 2020). Providers of private and public employment services have been placed nether a severe stress test as demand for their services sky-rocketed in the first few months of the crunch while their capacity was severely constrained by the need to curtail face-to-face contact with job seekers (ILO & OECD, 2020).

In urban areas, most working adults are constitute in the services sector (67.8%) also as wage employees (71.4%). Even so, working adults in rural areas are divided most equally between services (48.9%) and agronomics and livestock activities (40.four%). Wage employees in rural areas are mainly found in services with less than 5% working in agriculture and livestock activities. Services include shop assistants, demonstrators, hairdressers, barbers, beauticians, housekeepers, cookers and other catering services workers and extra (MoNPD, 2017). Table 1 shows how employees scattered through dissimilar sectors.

Source: Reproduced from Discussion Bank (2015) and based on SLHS (2013).

The bear on of COVID-19 pandemic will be felt not but on the national economic system only on the household economic system of local people. It is devastating affect is already unfolding in Somaliland. Daily wage earners have been badly striking; many accept nothing to live on now and are unable to buy food for their families. Hunger, malnutrition and other problems that have always plagued Somaliland are poised to intensify as a result of the lockdown (Duale, 2020). On the other mitt, people are unable to stay at homes without their work for their survival; thus they are concerned much more about their job rather than COVID-nineteen pandemic (Duale, 2020). While some businesses take found ways to go along going during COVID-19 response, others are having a harder time. Regime accept urged people to halt the spread of the outbreak virus and this has had knock-on event on Somaliland'southward hospitality sector (UNSOM, 2020).

3.5. Impact of Financial Measures (Policy)

COVID-nineteen outbreak has disrupted economical activities across the world. Not but workers and businesses affected, merely too the fiscal capacity of governments has been affected by the virus (Banking company of Somaliland, 2020). Government spending is low compared with Somaliland's Gdp and dependent on import flows. The 2020 budget includes expenditures of $245 million (approximately x% of Gdp) at electric current exchange rates, 95% of total revenue is domestically sources and more fifty% of that comes from taxes on imported goods (Rius & Diallo, 2020). International monetary fund predicts that the import volume of developing countries is expected to reject - 8.2% in 2020, while expert volume of the same countries is projected to decline - 9.vi% (International monetary fund, 2020).

The government of Somaliland is currently unable to access international bond markets and then is currently unable to utilize its stiff fiscal position to attract finance to invest in development due to livestock ban and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic (MoNPD, 2017). If the uncertainty of the pandemic continues, at that place volition be a significant reduction of trade book both imports and exports (Bank of Somaliland, 2020). This will reduce revenues from the trade activities particularly imports, the greatest source of revenue in Somaliland (MoNPD, 2017). Although the policies currently beingness implemented are likely to take substantial impacts on the level and limerick of expenditure, in that location has been no official communication on a revised budget as yet (Rius & Diallo, 2020).

4. Conclusion

COVID-19 is expected to have a severe impact on economy, enterprises and industries on all sizes, resulting in reduced incomes for vulnerable macro and micro-economies and the risk of job losses and lost incomes for thousands of low-paid workers. The increasing spread of COVID-19 across countries has prompted many governments including Somaliland to introduce unpresented measures to incorporate the pandemic. However, the government of has imposed partial restrictions on vast bulk of businesses and economic activities in the land as a effect of banning social gathering and closed all Schools, Universities, Sports Centers and Kat tea shops.

Somaliland imports are decreased due to pandemic and this has financial and unemployment adverse implications. After the outbreak of COVID-19, a meaning reduction of remittance inflow to the nation has declined due to the Global lockdowns that brought the loss of jobs for the Diaspora community and the closure of financial institutions such equally banks and monetary transfer operators. Social distancing, self-isolation and travel restrictions forced a decrease in the workforce beyond all economic sectors and acquired many jobs to be lost. Schools and Travel and Bout Agencies have airtight and the need of commodities and manufactured products has decreased.

The nutrient supply has besides seen a nifty need due to panic-ownership and stockpiling of food items. Partial restrictions and the closure of some business sectors forced thousands of people to lost their jobs and increase the unemployment rate, for example, the social distancing and motility of restrictions measures brought to close both public and private schools, sports and amusement centers. Providers of private and public employment services have been placed under a severe stress test as need for their services sky-rocketed in the start few months of the crunch while their chapters was severely constrained by the need to curtail contiguous contact with job seekers.

Daily wage earners accept been badly hit; many accept nothing to alive on now and are unable to buy food for their families. On the other mitt, people are unable to stay at home without their work for their survival, thus they are concerned much more about their job rather COVID-19. The regime of Somaliland is currently unable to access internal bond markets and and so is unable to utilise its stiff fiscal position to attract finance to invest in evolution due to livestock and the impact of pandemic. This is also reduced the government revenues from the trade activities particularly imports, which is the greatest source of revenue in Somaliland.

The consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic on Somaliland's economy is one that the country volition have to grapple with for years to come. The policy response will go a long way in determining how long it would last. If information technology is late, weak or uncoordinated, the devastating consequences would final longer. However, if the response is prompt, effective, strong and coordinated, information technology would be less devastating. This is belatedly time the government to reset everything as the world has become standstill for a few months due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Somaliland National COVID-19 Task force does not plan, rethink, redesign, and restructure everything to gainsay the pandemic and protect its citizens and micro and macro-economic sectors.

Recommendations

There is an urgent need for Somaliland to form a combination of budgetary, fiscal and financial markets measures to aid economies and businesses to cope with this spread of virus and crunch surround. For framing advisable action plans and policy, information technology is significant to know the specific issues that businesses and the public in general are facing recently. Yet, this paper suggests the following recommendations:

1) As a mode forward, the immediate focus on the nation should be on measures to comprise the spread of the illness COVID-19 and to treat the individuals infected. The power to stop its spread and treat the ill will have very positive consequences on the economic system.

two) The time has come to focus on developing the local economic system with the hope of having a nation that is dependent on local appurtenances rather than over-dependence on importation. At this time of COVID-19, Somaliland should learn lessons and start producing cash crops, finished goods like toothpick, face masks, ventilators and extra for a locally.

3) To salve the economic system, companies and other industries relieving or laying off workers of their chore is non the solution to the trouble, holistically viewed it creates some other problem. Even so, it is important to emphasize the importance of employers' loyalty and in that location should be more of negotiation than relieving employees of their jobs.

4) Equally nosotros all know, there are large number of people who lose their jobs in many sectors like the retail, hospitality, travel and tourism, construction industry and transportation Companies, etc. so the government is required to provide incentives for short or long term solutions such equally taxation payment extensions, subsidies, loans or cash funding and other financial assistances to employers to keep workers until COVID-19 trouble.

five) There is a need to provide relaxation in the factory compliances to enable the industries to keep operation even in few laborers over longer work keeping in mind the healthier and save surround. Social distancing is followed in this and tin can bring a positive upshot. If required health concerns and lockdown decisions must exist followed strictly.

6) There is a need to enhance expenditure on public health to maintain adequate supplies to manage the problem of COVID-nineteen; medicines, medical kits for the medical professionals, masks, gloves, more health clinics, more hospitals, etc.

7) There is a need to provide income back up to SMEs, Tourism, Hospitality, Education and low-income households. Formers should be supported by giving Minimum Support Prices for their harvests. In that location is a need to provide relief programs to those farmers who have lost their output due to this pandemic, unseasonal rains and weather harshness.

eight) The regime of Somaliland must implement certain measures to contain the rapid spread of the COVID-19 disease including full closure of borders, in-bound traveler quarantine, passenger limitations, etc.

nine) The Central Depository financial institution of Somaliland must event directives to local Public and Individual Banks encouraging them to ease credit access and lending to Small and Medium sized businesses and low income individuals by relaxing stringent credit weather, policies, procedures and processes.

10) A big arrival of money may bring severe liquidity hazard to the stability of the fiscal arrangement and raise the economy of the nation. Therefore, The Central Depository financial institution of Somaliland must critically watch and control the outward menses of strange currency funds from the state to abroad.

Conflicts of Involvement

The authors declare no conflicts of involvement regarding the publication of this paper.

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